What is a moneyline bet?

The short answer

A moneyline bet is a bet on which side wins outright. There is no point spread and no margin of victory to worry about. If your team wins, the bet wins, whether it is by one point or by thirty. The word "moneyline" refers to the line that shows how much money each side pays.

Because there is no spread to level things out, the two sides are priced differently. The side more likely to win, the favorite, pays less per dollar. The side less likely to win, the underdog, pays more. Reading those two numbers is most of what there is to know about the bet.

How a moneyline is written

US sportsbooks write moneylines as American odds. A minus sign marks the favorite and a plus sign marks the underdog. Take a game with one team at -150 and the other at +130.

The -150 means you must stake $150 to win $100. On a $100 stake the same price wins $66.67 in profit, and a $10 stake wins $6.67. The +130 means a $100 stake wins $130 in profit, and a $10 stake wins $13.00. In both cases a winning bet also returns your stake, so $100 on the underdog returns $230.00 in total.

The last column is the share of bets at that price you must win to come out even over time. It is worked out from the price alone, so it tells you the bar the bet has to clear. The guide to American odds explains the arithmetic in more detail.

What the price says about the game

Every moneyline price implies a chance. For -150 it is 150 divided by 250, which is 60.0%. For +130 it is 100 divided by 230, which is 43.5%. Add the two and you get 103.5%, which is more than 100%.

That extra 3.5% is the sportsbook's margin. Remove it and the fair chances are about 58.0% for the favorite and 42.0% for the underdog, which correspond to fair prices of about -138 and +138. For comparison, a market priced at -110 on both sides carries a margin of 4.76%. Margins differ between markets and between apps. The odds calculator does this for any pair of prices.

A game from slip to result

Take the same game, with the home team at -150 and the visitors at +130, and a $50 stake. A $50 bet on the home team wins $33.33 in profit if they win, and a $50 bet on the visitors wins $65.00 if they win. If your side loses, you lose the $50 stake in either case.

Now imagine the final score. The visitors win by two points. The $50 on the visitors returns $115.00 in total. The $50 on the home team returns nothing. The margin of victory does not enter into it, and neither does the fact that the home team was the favorite. Only the winner matters, which is what makes the moneyline the easiest bet to follow while the game is on.

Moneyline versus point spread

A point spread removes the difference between the teams by giving the underdog a head start. A bet on the favorite at -7.5 only wins if the favorite wins by eight or more. A moneyline bet on the same favorite wins with any victory, and it pays much less for that, because it is far more likely to win.

Choosing between the two is a choice between a likelier win at a smaller payout and a less likely win at a payout close to even. Neither is better in general. They answer different questions: who wins, and by how much. The guide to moneyline, spread and totals compares all three main bets side by side.

As an illustration, a team favored by a touchdown might be priced at -300 on the moneyline and at -110 on a -7.5 spread. The moneyline pays far less per dollar but wins on any victory, while the spread pays close to even money but needs a wide one. If you expect a narrow win, the spread is the riskier choice, and if you expect a blowout, the moneyline price may be too short to be worth taking.

When the favorite is very short

Some games are so lopsided that the favorite is priced at -1000 or beyond. At -1000 you stake $1000 to win $100, and the break-even rate is 90.9%. One loss erases ten wins. The price looks safe because the favorite usually wins, but the bet only pays off if it wins more than 90.9% of the time, and a single upset costs far more than a single win earns.

The same logic works at the other end. A big underdog pays a lot, and the break-even rate is low, but it wins rarely, so a long run of losses is normal. The price is a trade between how often you win and how much you win, and the margin sits on top of that trade.

Why prices move before the game

A moneyline price is not fixed. It changes as news arrives, such as an injury report or a change in the weather, and as bettors place money on one side. The price you get is the price on the slip at the moment you confirm the bet, so a price that looked good an hour ago may be gone. Apps usually warn you if a price changes while you are on the slip, and you can choose to accept the new one or to leave the bet.

Favorite or underdog

A common instinct is to back the underdog because the payout is bigger, or to back the favorite because it wins more often. Both miss the point. The price already reflects how likely the sportsbook thinks each side is, and the margin comes out of both sides.

What matters is whether your own honest estimate of the chance beats the break-even rate in the table. If you think a +130 underdog wins 48% of the time, the price is attractive, because the break-even rate is 43.5%. If you only feel that the underdog has a shot, you have no edge. Favorites and underdogs lose money in the same way when the price is too short for the real chance, and the margin works against you on both sides.

Overtime, draws and other rules

The rules for what counts as a win differ by sport and by market. Some moneylines include overtime or extra innings, so a game decided in the extra period still has a winner. Others settle on regulation time only. In sports where a draw is a normal result, such as soccer, a three-way moneyline adds the draw as a third outcome, and a two-way version may return your stake on a draw. The app shows which version a market is, and the house rules page explains how postponed or shortened games are settled. Check both before you bet.

Moneylines in a parlay

Moneyline bets are a popular choice for parlay legs because each is simple to understand. The same arithmetic applies as for any parlay: the decimal prices multiply, and every leg has to win. A ticket of three heavy favorites looks safe, and it is not as safe as it looks, because the chances multiply as well. The article on what a parlay is shows how fast the chance of winning falls, and the parlay calculator prices any ticket.

Common mistakes with moneylines

• Treating the implied chance as the true chance. It includes the sportsbook's margin.
• Backing a favorite at a very short price without asking whether it wins often enough to justify it.
• Confusing the moneyline with the spread. A team can win the game and still fail to cover.
• Forgetting that overtime, draws and shortened games can be settled differently by market.
• Comparing prices from two apps by eye. Convert both to a break-even rate first.
• Betting more than planned to chase a short-priced favorite that lost.

A short checklist before you place one

• Which side is the favorite, and what win rate does its price need?
• Does the market include overtime, or does it settle on regulation time?
• What would a win and a loss each do to the amount you set aside for betting?
• Have you compared the same price at a second app?

Words you will meet

• Favorite: the side expected to win, written with a minus sign.
• Underdog: the side expected to lose, written with a plus sign.
• Pick'em: a game priced as an even contest, often near -110 on both sides.
• Break-even rate: the share of bets you must win at a price to come out even.
• Margin: the amount by which the implied chances in a market add up to more than 100%.

Keeping it in proportion

A moneyline bet is simple, and that can make it feel safer than it is. Each bet is still a wager with an average cost. Decide how much you can afford to lose before you start, keep stakes small, and treat any result as entertainment spending. Should betting stop being fun, the tools and help on the responsible gambling page are there, and you can call 1-800-GAMBLER at any hour. To practice reading prices, try the odds quiz or the odds course.

Frequently asked questions